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Could solar cycle 25 have started?
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
 United States
8/2/2009 12:41 AM
Report abusive post | Could solar cycle 25 have started?
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I was browsing the eastern weather forum today and found this article:
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
"This would be stunning, because it suggests that the sun has skipped a solar cycle (#24) . Researchers, three from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the other from Marshall Space Flight Center-NASA, have published a paper that suggests this possibility."
I searched and didnt see this posted but if it has been I apologize.
If this turns out to verify the sun could be spotless for a long time.
Last Edited by Dr.Green Thumb on 8/2/2009 at 12:52 AM |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 12:52 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Only partially... I put it into a response in another thread.
Yours has merit.
What it boils down to, is that a referenced document on that link indicates that plasma flow is more in keeping with the next cycle having already started.... skipping cycle 24, the one we are supposed to be in.
Oddly enough, there are references to skipped cycles in the Maunder and Dalton minimum.
This... would be bad. We already have abnormally LOW sunspot numbers... but if it turns into a full on Dalton (or worse) minimum.
Hope you like snow...
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 12:57 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Only partially... I put it into a response in another thread.
Yours has merit.
What it boils down to, is that a referenced document on that link indicates that plasma flow is more in keeping with the next cycle having already started.... skipping cycle 24, the one we are supposed to be in.
Oddly enough, there are references to skipped cycles in the Maunder and Dalton minimum.
This... would be bad. We already have abnormally LOW sunspot numbers... but if it turns into a full on Dalton (or worse) minimum.
Hope you like snow... Quoting: LURKING
Yea and shorter summers, there was a response on the linked page I thought was interesting. They suggested the cycle 23 spots we are seeing once and a while are actually cycle 25 spots.
This could be very interesting, Im not great(smart) at this stuff by any means but find it interesting because these kind of things dont happen very often at all and to witness it is really cool(no pun intended). |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 12:59 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Not likely. Cycle 23 spots are low in latitude near the equator... like the small ones that have popped up. 25 spots would be high latitude.
Well... at least they would be if the current theories are close.
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 12:59 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 1:04 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Not likely. Cycle 23 spots are low in latitude near the equator... like the small ones that have popped up. 25 spots would be high latitude.
Well... at least they would be if the current theories are close. Quoting: LURKING
Ah icic thank you. I gotta read more about this stuff.
21 spotless days in a row now too. and from the looks of soho/stereo it could be like that for a little bit longer too.
Also anyone else notice the lack of hurricanes this year? I dont think there's any relation but if we make it through august without one that would be impressive. |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 1:06 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
I don't have the background to compete with some of the guys on Watt's site, but I do know about interfering waveforms. I ran an interference plot of the 22 year Hale cycle, 87 year Gleissberg cycle, 210 years Suess cycle and the 2,300 year Hallstatt cycle. What I found was a segment that closely matched the amplitude and spacing of the plot on the "400 years of Sunspot Observations" plot.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
According to that match, and taking it out a few cycles... we have a Dalton sized minimum coming up, very soon. Possibly now.
Yee Haw.
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 1:12 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
I don't have the background to compete with some of the guys on Watt's site, but I do know about interfering waveforms. I ran an interference plot of the 22 year Hale cycle, 87 year Gleissberg cycle, 210 years Suess cycle and the 2,300 year Hallstatt cycle. What I found was a segment that closely matched the amplitude and spacing of the plot on the "400 years of Sunspot Observations" plot.
[ link to en.wikipedia.org]
According to that match, and taking it out a few cycles... we have a Dalton sized minimum coming up, very soon. Possibly now.
Yee Haw.
Yes, I also dont have any background in any of this(you seem a lot more knowledgeable than me), just a little hobby. Some guys over there are very smart and its great reading (which is what I usually do).
Im going to read that link but with what you have said, these could indeed be historic times we are living in and very uncharted waters. Im just grateful to have the modern day observation equipment than we did even 60 years ago.
Last Edited by Dr.Green Thumb on 8/2/2009 at 1:13 AM |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 1:29 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
I found a book on Solar research that detailed the progress and breakthroughs they have made over the years of gleaning data from the sun's activity. Things like isolating individual lines in a spectrogram that correlate to atoms in specific energy states... which give them the altitude and temperature they were at and then measuring the offset and oscillations (or wiggles) in the spectrum. This yields data like the speed at which the atoms were moving (doppler shift) and the flow patterns that are going on. This is where the info in that research paper comes from.
Over on Spaceweather, the diagram that show activity on the far side of the sun is from monitoring the oscillations found via the same method.
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 1:35 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 739441
 Mexico
8/2/2009 1:35 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
things are too quiet....
way too quiet....
are we in for a rude awakening? |
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 1:37 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
I found a book on Solar research that detailed the progress and breakthroughs they have made over the years if gleaning data from the sun's activity. Things like isolating individual lines in a spectrogram that correlate to atoms in specific energy states... which give them the altitude and temperature they were at and then measuring the offset and oscillations (or wiggles) in the spectrum. This yields data like the speed at which the atoms were moving (doppler shift) and the flow patterns that are going on. This is where the info in that research paper comes from.
Over on Spaceweather, the diagram that show activity on the far side of the sun is from monitoring the oscillations found via the same method. Quoting: LURKING
Thank you for the explanation and I gotta tell ya that you definitely know you stuff on this.
I just started getting interested in this about a year ago but since im going to school for computers, and very busy I haven't read much about this, but hope to do so in the future. hehe I dont want to overload the old noggin. |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 1:39 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
things are too quiet....
way too quiet....
are we in for a rude awakening? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 739441
Maybe.
Already this year only 35% of the broken temperature records are record highs. The other 65% are record lows.
One or two research groups are starting to equate solar activity with long term temperature changes... mainly in the ENSO phenomena (el nino/la nina), and at least one NASA researcher has mentioned that we might have a Dalton minima sized event in our future.
Sure, this goes against the "consensus" but there are more than a few scientists who disagree with the politically correct position.
Thank you for the explanation and I gotta tell ya that you definitely know you stuff on this. Quoting: Dr.Green Thumb
Nah.. I'm just pragmatic and curious about stuff like this.
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 1:41 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 1:43 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
By the way.. that book is this one:
[link to books.google.com]
Some of it is deep, but it's written in a fairly easy to read narrative.
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 1:43 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
Punted from GLP for the last time by unresponsive mods. Have gone to greener pastures where there is more professionalism. |
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 1:47 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Sure, this goes against the "consensus" but there are more than a few scientists who disagree with the politically correct position. Quoting: LURKING
Yep, and I think we might see more of this if this minimum continues at its current rate.
Cool, il bookmark that link to check it out someday, it seems to have a good preview.
Last Edited by Dr.Green Thumb on 8/2/2009 at 1:51 AM |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 2:19 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Wanna hear a wild arsed tie in?
The Maunder minimum is what is known as a "grand minimum." This is a prolonged period of low Solar activity. There have been about seven of them over the last 13,200 years, Generally... they last up to about 66 years when they occur.
Some sort of large (not necessarily a grand) minimum happens about every 68.8 - 765.5 years (68% of the time).
The Dalton was one of these large, non grand minimums. The only reason the Dalton was as memorable as it was, is because of the large amount of SO2 that was being injected into the atmosphere around the same time. This comes from volcanic eruptions.
And what have we been having the last two years? A noticeable number of eruptions such as Redoubt, the Manda Hararo area of the western Afar region, Sarychev, Kasatochi, Okmok, Santa Ana... etc.
So.. if these volcanoes have dumped enough SO2, and the current minimum gets much more Dalton like... I think you get the picture.
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]
[link to www.ethiopianreview.com]
[link to volcanoes.suite101.com]
[link to cat.inist.fr]
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 2:19 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
Punted from GLP for the last time by unresponsive mods. Have gone to greener pastures where there is more professionalism. |
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 2:44 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
So.. if these volcanoes have dumped enough SO2, and the current minimum gets much more Dalton like... I think you get the picture. Quoting: LURKING
Yep, invest in jacket/sweater companies! hehe Yea, this could be a wild ride if we get a couple of nice size eruption events. Sure would put an end to global warming theories.
Tie that in with the ENSO predictions and the weather might actually turn cooler fairly quick.
IF this were to happen would the latitude of the eruptions matter? Like if they start going off closer to the poles it could block more sunlight helping the antarctic/arctic rebuild some ice faster than normal? Could this speed up cooling?
I may be way off there but its late and I kinda need some sleep(misspelling easy words hehe).
Last Edited by Dr.Green Thumb on 8/2/2009 at 2:52 AM |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 739994
 Canada
8/2/2009 3:10 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
No sunspot for 22 days straight... |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 3:12 AM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
IF this were to happen would the latitude of the eruptions matter? Like if they start going off closer to the poles it could block more sunlight helping the antarctic/arctic rebuild some ice faster than normal? Could this speed up cooling? Quoting: Dr.Green Thumb
Yeah... but not for the reason you might think.
Mid latitude / equatorial eruptions have up to 31 miles of atmosphere to punch through to get to the stratosphere. higher latitudes closer to the poles have only about 5 to 6 miles before you get to the same region. The stratosphere is where the smog effect tends to occur... and this produces the cooling effect.
Another issue with mid latitude / equatorial eruptions is that the vented gas has more contact with the moisture in the air, this tends to produce more H2SO4 which precipitates out quicker, lessening the amount of SO2 in the eruptive column.
Last Edited by LURKING on 8/2/2009 at 3:14 AM
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
Punted from GLP for the last time by unresponsive mods. Have gone to greener pastures where there is more professionalism. |
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Dr.Green Thumb
User ID: 739744
United States
8/2/2009 3:39 AM
| | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
IF this were to happen would the latitude of the eruptions matter? Like if they start going off closer to the poles it could block more sunlight helping the antarctic/arctic rebuild some ice faster than normal? Could this speed up cooling?
Yeah... but not for the reason you might think.
Mid latitude / equatorial eruptions have up to 31 miles of atmosphere to punch through to get to the stratosphere. higher latitudes closer to the poles have only about 5 to 6 miles before you get to the same region. The stratosphere is where the smog effect tends to occur... and this produces the cooling effect.
Another issue with mid latitude / equatorial eruptions is that the vented gas has more contact with the moisture in the air, this tends to produce more H2SO4 which precipitates out quicker, lessening the amount of SO2 in the eruptive column. Quoting: LURKING
Yea I was wondering how much would be lost due to being converted into acid rain. Sure would make for some pretty sunsets though.
Great discussion with ya Lurking though, thanks for it!
Last Edited by Dr.Green Thumb on 8/2/2009 at 3:45 AM |
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LURKING
User ID: 656081
United States
8/2/2009 12:52 PM | | Re: Could solar cycle 25 have started? | Quote |
Not a prob... but we've pretty gone through all my info on it. All that's left is looking at the Solar and Geological events and saying "Wha...?"
"The Truth is so valuable that it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies"
Winston Churchill
Punted from GLP for the last time by unresponsive mods. Have gone to greener pastures where there is more professionalism. |
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